Global advertising spend is poised to accelerate beyond earlier forecasts, driven primarily by vigorous digital performance
We’re seeing something many didn’t expect. Global ad spend is on the rise. Despite broader economic volatility, the latest forecast from WARC puts it on a sharper upward track. Many analysts have been dialing down their expectations, but WARC’s Q3 report shows that digital advertising is still gaining ground and gaining it fast.
This growth is largely tied to brands seizing the moment before expected cost increases from trade tariffs. In Q2, marketers moved quickly to push out inventory and create consumer value ahead of those economic headwinds. That strategic window paid off. It translated to greater ad volume, and better-targeted and better-placed digital exposure.
This proves a point we’ve seen across industries: when the macro environment shifts, forward-leaning companies don’t pull back. They move faster. In this case, digital gave them the ability to act in real-time. That flexibility, to shift spend, optimize on the fly, and reach global audiences instantly, reinforces why digital continues to dominate.
For executives, you shouldn’t view this merely as a rebound. It’s a recalibration of how marketing works in uncertain times. Capital-first strategies, squeezing more performance out of fewer dollars, depend heavily on digital infrastructure and strategic agility. Timing and execution are variables you control. Markets may slow, but if your digital engine is optimized, you don’t have to.
The dominance of major digital platforms remains a central driver in the ad landscape
The digital ad space is captured. Amazon, Google, and Meta control it. This is about their precision in execution and scale multiplied by data intelligence. Marketers, especially retail brands, are doubling down.
In Q2, there was a massive 20.2% year-over-year jump in global social media ad spend. That’s a full step change in activity. Nearly $5 billion in additional value was created, and much of it came from just two platforms: Instagram and TikTok. Instagram saw 18.8% growth. TikTok? A staggering 56.8%. That’s acceleration from a smaller base but shows future momentum.
Retailers, the loudest voice in digital right now, are pouring more dollars into these spaces. The move isn’t opportunistic, it’s strategic. Instagram and TikTok deliver engagement, conversion, and reach. They’re fast, dynamic, and algorithmically tuned to human behavior. That’s the kind of return marketers are chasing.
There are critical choices here for leaders. The triopoly gives you reliable scale, and that’s vital, but platforms like TikTok are starting to reshape the curve. It’s not yet a zero-sum game, but attention is finite. As user behavior migrates, ad dollars follow fast. If you’re not tracking this shift, you’re shortchanging long-term ROI.
Retail media continues to expand, but its growth trajectory is beginning to slow as the market matures
Retail media is growing, fast, but not indefinitely. In 2025, it’s projected to hit $175 billion in global ad spend. That’s a 13.7% increase and will represent 14.9% of total global ad spend. Strong numbers. But what’s important here isn’t just what’s growing, it’s how it’s changing.
This segment is leaning more toward maturity. The early surge in innovation, new platform launches, and aggressive investment is shifting to a phase of optimization and consolidation. Amazon, still dominant, will take more than a third of total retail media spending, accounting for 35.4%. That kind of concentration shapes everything. It affects pricing. It affects benchmarking. And increasingly, it limits differentiation for smaller players entering that space.
Still, the fundamentals remain strong. Retail media gives advertisers a direct line to consumer intent and conversion. Even with growth slowing to an annual average of 12.6% moving forward, it’s nowhere near saturation. Instead, we’re seeing a rebalancing, from pure growth to efficient scale and higher quality engagement.
Executives need to be careful not to confuse slowing growth with declining value. The opportunity is still considerable, but the competitive environment is tighter. Winning in retail media will increasingly depend on your ability to deliver measurable performance, tailor content to context, and prioritize platforms that can guarantee attention and relevance at scale. Volume isn’t enough anymore. Precision is priority.
Traditional media channels are experiencing a steady decline
The trend is clear: traditional advertising is losing ground. Channels like newspapers, broadcast television, and radio are being outpaced by digital alternatives. This isn’t driven by preferences inside media companies, it’s happening because consumers have already moved on, and advertisers are following at scale.
Since the pandemic, the shift to digital platforms has accelerated. What used to be gradual has become standard operating behavior. Businesses are reallocating spend toward channels that offer measurable performance, dynamic targeting, and real-time optimization.
Traditional media can still deliver value in specific segments. But as a core growth engine, it no longer sets the tone. Digital leads now, in spend, in influence, and in revenue generation. WARC is firm on this. They project that, by 2027, total global advertising spend will nearly double compared to 2020, powered almost entirely by the digital sector.
For business leaders, it’s no longer a case of digital-first. It’s digital core. Baseline strategy must center on digital capabilities, predictive targeting, personalized messaging, and transparent performance metrics. Traditional media strategies should be seen as additive, not foundational. Where legacy formats remain in use, they require tighter controls on ROI, attribution, and integration.
The divergence in forecasts for 2025
While global ad growth is trending higher, the U.S. market is showing early signs of caution. Much of that caution stems from structural concerns, mainly the impact of ongoing trade pressures. Key advertising sectors like automotive and retail are pulling back digital budgets as tariffs start to affect import costs and supply dynamics.
eMarketer reports that U.S. digital ad spending will grow by 9.5% in 2025, reaching $338.27 billion, but that figure is a downgrade from earlier forecasts, cut by two full percentage points. This stands in contrast to WARC’s more bullish global projection, which is buoyed by social media gains, strategic pre-tariff spend, and broader adoption of performance-driven platforms.
This creates a split-screen scenario. Globally, confidence in digital channels remains strong. In the U.S., businesses are pausing, not because digital has lost effectiveness, but because market uncertainties are forcing reallocation and delay in campaigns. Executives need to understand that these aren’t conflicting truths. They’re different responses to different pressures.
Leadership teams should separate regional shocks from global strategic trends. If you’re managing U.S. campaigns, cost discipline will matter, but being too conservative could mean losing share to competitors who treat uncertainty as a chance to capture attention at a lower market cost. Globally, the window for efficient digital scaling is open, especially in sectors and geographies less exposed to trade policy headwinds.
Key highlights
- Global ad momentum outpaces forecasts: Global advertising spend is set to nearly double by 2027, with digital channels driving faster-than-expected growth. Leaders should move early on campaigns during economic inflection points to capture share while costs remain favorable.
- Digital triopoly tightens its grip: Amazon, Google, and Meta continue to dominate global ad markets, while TikTok is scaling fast. Executives should maintain investment in these core platforms but monitor emerging challengers for early-mover advantages.
- Retail media growth slows as it scales: Retail media will hit $175 billion in 2025, led by Amazon, but its expansion is gradually decelerating. Leaders should shift focus from volume growth to performance optimization within high-impact retail media channels.
- Traditional media decline accelerates: Legacy advertising platforms continue losing ground as post-pandemic habits solidify digital-first behavior. Decision-makers should reallocate traditional budgets toward proven, scalable digital channels with clear attribution.
- U.S. outlook diverges under trade pressure: U.S. ad spend is decelerating, with a revised 9.5% digital growth forecast in 2025 due to tariffs impacting key sectors. Firms operating in the U.S. should adjust regional strategies to account for cost sensitivities while pursuing global digital upsides.
