Global smartphone sales experience moderate recovery
Smartphone sales are showing signs of life again. Even with global economic instability, shipments are projected to rise slightly, 1% growth in 2025, according to IDC. That doesn’t sound like much. But in a supply-squeezed, cost-sensitive period, this is forward motion. The market is holding steady after years of volatility. That sends a clear message: consumer demand is adjusting fast to current global shifts.
The growth isn’t happening everywhere. The real momentum is coming from the U.S., the Middle East, and Africa, regions often underleveraged by tech leaders when framing global device strategy. What we’re seeing here is more than pockets of interest. These are massive user bases responding to connectivity, utility, and brand. Their increasing appetite for devices will shape how the major players deploy new offerings, scale distribution, and prioritize investments.
Apple is benefitting more than others. iPhone sales are expected to rise 3.9% this year. These devices are premium, and for them to gain market share means brand value and functionality are converging in a way that resonates. So, what’s the move for other players? Build smarter supply chains, focus on fast-moving geographies, and place real bets on experience quality.
This is about signals, where people are buying, what they’re upgrading to, and what features they’re prioritizing. Leaders shouldn’t just be watching the numbers, they should be recalibrating strategies to compete in rising markets where mobile usage remains central to economic growth.
The path forward is straightforward: follow the demand curves, double down on agility, and stay close to consumer behavior. The smartphone market isn’t done growing. It’s just evolving where and how that growth happens.
AI smartphones set a new benchmark in market penetration
Smartphones with embedded AI aren’t just a trend, they’re becoming the new standard. According to IDC, this year alone, 370 million AI-powered smartphones are expected to be sold. That’s nearly one-third of the entire market. By 2029, the share jumps to 70%. What this clearly shows is that a fundamental shift is already underway, and the companies not preparing for it are going to be left behind.
AI is changing how devices operate under the hood, faster processing, adaptive battery usage, voice optimization, better camera logic, and real-time translation. These features aren’t gimmicks. They’re user-centric functions that reduce friction and boost performance. Buyers want more from their phones because the technology finally makes it possible.
From a leadership standpoint, this is high-priority. If your product or supply chain roadmap doesn’t account for AI-driven capabilities, in hardware design, in chip selection, in post-sale optimization, you’re behind. And worse, you’re allowing user expectations to be shaped solely by your competitors.
AI also opens the door for tighter integration with cloud services, contextual advertising, and dynamic OS updates. That raises the stakes for partnerships and compliance. Leaders need to think not just about their next phone release, but about their AI lifecycle strategy across devices, services, and ecosystems.
It’s a market shift already in motion. The question isn’t whether to participate, but how quickly you can integrate, scale, and deliver value without adding complexity. AI in smartphones is no longer differentiating, it will soon be foundational to staying competitive.
Steady growth in foldable smartphones indicates a niche yet promising segment
Foldables are gaining ground, but not fast. IDC projects 6% sales growth in 2025 and 2026, then 11% in 2027. By 2029, foldables will still represent just 3% of total smartphone shipments. That’s small, but the direction is positive. Growth is consistent, even if the current market share is limited. What we’re seeing is durability, not in the literal sense, but in how the category is holding up and improving with each product generation.
The demand is coming from early adopters, tech-forward users, and premium buyers looking for variation in form and function. These devices stand out based on experience, not price. For companies, that means selective engineering, careful market positioning, and deliberate audience targeting.
This also signals a long runway for innovation. As foldable technology stabilizes, manufacturing costs will eventually drop, and product design will become more efficient and scalable. But leaders shouldn’t wait for mass-market validation before investing. This category gives brands the opportunity to align with forward-looking customers and test next-gen use cases in real time.
From a business angle, foldables represent optionality. They won’t replace mainstream models, but they expand the portfolio, especially in regions where consumers are looking to upgrade, not just replace. That’s an important distinction for pricing, marketing, and go-to-market planning.
C-suite leaders should view foldables not only as a product category but as a signal of where consumer interest is headed. Even at 3% market share by 2029, foldables aren’t a distraction, they’re a proof point that there’s appetite for differentiated design and high-end mobile performance. Good design paired with real utility will keep this segment alive, and if executed correctly, profitable.
Key takeaways for leaders
- Smartphone demand holds despite economic pressure: Global smartphone sales are projected to rise 1% in 2025, driven by demand in the US, Middle East, and Africa. Leaders should prioritize geographic diversification and channel investment toward high-demand, underpenetrated regions.
- AI phones are redefining market expectations: AI-enabled smartphones are expected to make up 30% of 2025 sales and 70% by 2029. Executives should accelerate integration of AI features across devices to remain competitive and meet fast-evolving user expectations.
- Foldables show growth potential within premium niches: Though foldables will only account for 3% of shipments by 2029, they’re growing steadily (6% YoY in 2025–26, 11% in 2027). Leaders in product development should treat foldables as a long-term bet for premium differentiation and early tech adoption.
